South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster asks lawmakers for $1,228,000,000 For Recovery from Hurricane Florence?

Source: Fox News

There is no dispute that the damage done by Hurricane Florence has been tremendous and will not be repaired anytime soon.  In fact, years from now, we will check in and see that there remains irreparable damage (mental health, loss of life, loss of health, loss of housing, loss of security, etc.).   Last week, I wrote a blog post regarding a forecaster's model predicting that Hurricane Florence would drop enough rain to fill 18,400 Superdome stadiums.  The total destruction stands to be enormous to say the least.  With that being said, what would a letter look like from a Governor asking elected officials from Washington D.C. asking for funds to start the process of recovery?



One of the many underlying themes on this blog site is to provide letters or statements on various topics which relate to environmental health or public safety/health and society in general.  First up is the letter written by Governor Henry McMaster to elected officials representing the state of South Carolina asking for money.  Following the letter below is another letter justifying the amount of expense that is being requested.  Without further ado, here is the letter from Governor Henry McMaster shown below:

The Honorable Lindsey Graham    The Honorable Tim Scott

The Honorable Mark Sanford         The Honorable Joe Wilson

The Honorable Jeff Duncan            The Honorable Trey Gowdy

The Honorable Ralph Norman        The Honorable James E. Clyburn

The Honorable Tom Rice

To the Members of the South Carolina Congressional Delegation:

As you know, for two and a half days Hurricane Florence slowly crept across North and South Carolina - battering our coast with hurricane force winds, storm surge, and massive amounts of rainfall. Deadly localized flash flooding washed out roads and bridges, submerged homes, and left residents stranded from Chesterfield all the way to Horry County.

The rainfall and flooding in North Carolina is sending unheard of amounts of water into South Carolina along the Lynches, Great Pee Dee, Little Pee Dee and Waccamaw rivers. The damage in the northeastern part of our state will be catastrophic, surpassing anything recorded in modern history.

I have asked President Trump to authorize federal disaster recovery funds in Public Assistance Categories A, B, C, D, E, F & G - as well Individual Assistance for 23 South Carolina counties through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”). They are: Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston, Chester, Chesterfield, Clarendon, Darlington, Dillon, Dorchester, Fairfield, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee, Marion, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Richland, Sumter, Williamsburg, and York counties.

Public Assistance in these categories can include funding to support repairs for public assets, such as roads and bridges; water control facilities; building and equipment replacement; restoration and repairs to utilities; and public parks and beaches. Individual Assistance can be granted to persons for temporary housing, home repairs for individuals, dollars towards home replacement, and some other necessary needs.

The South Carolina Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) along with the state Disaster Recovery Office (SCDRO), have provided preliminary financial impact and federal recovery fund estimates for Hurricane Florence in anticipation of actual on the ground damage assessments. These estimates are based primarily on information from Hurricane Matthew and incorporating various other planning factors and estimates. I have attached these estimates for your review.

Hurricane Florence - $1,228,000,000

Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery ($540 million) - Disaster Relief Fund ($300 million) - Federal Highway Administration ($18 million) - Agriculture ($125 million) - Small Business Administration ($80 million) - National Flood Insurance Program ($165 million)

On behalf of all South Carolinians that were affected by Hurricane Florence, I ask that you support the federal disaster recovery requests made by the state, our counties and municipalities.

Thank you for considering this very important request. Should you have any questions or concerns, or if I can be of any further assistance, please do not hesitate to call.

Yours very truly,

Henry McMaster

The numbers cited in the letter above by Governor Henry McMaster might seem large and cause the reader question as to the merit of the need.  At the same time, when the entire state is taken into account along with the wide diversity of economically disadvantaged groups, then the request for an appropriate amount seems reasonable.  Not to mention, the fact that South Carolina has been hit recently (in the past few years) by other large Hurricanes which have caused their own respective damage too.  Some of which still resides and is discussed in the disaster budget analysis letter.  Below is a letter from the Agency which Governor McMaster asked to draw up the need (money values) for recovery from Hurricane Florence on South Carolina:

September 19, 2018

The Honorable Henry McMaster

State House

1100 Gervais Street

Columbia, South Carolina 29201

Dear Governor McMaster,

Subject: Estimate for Community Development Blog Grant -- Disaster Recovery (CDBG-DR) grant funds associated with Hurricane Florence.

This analysis is based upon the 19 September 2018 SCEMD Hurricane Florence Disaster Intelligence ASCOPE and upon the proposition/planning assumption that the state suffered substantial damage from Hurricane Florence, and that multiple rivers throughout the State have already, or will obtain Moderate, Major, and Record flood stages causing damage to both homes and infrastructure.  This assumes that flooding will impact the entire watershed and numerous tributaries throughout the watershed.  Finally it assumes up to 23 counties in South Carolina will be Presidentially Declared Disasters for both FEMA Public Assistance and Individual Assistance.  Critical to CBDG-DR estimates is the Individual Assistance declaration.

Based upon the Disaster Intelligence summary, the following South Carolina Counties have already, or will experience, Hurricane Florence damage from either the Hurricane itself or subsequent flooding and could potentially be declared: Horry, Dillion, Marion, Marlboro, Darlington, Chesterfield, Lancaster, York, Kershaw, Lee, Sumter, Florence, Clarendon, Williamsburg, Georgetown, Union, Fairfield, Newberry, Orangeburg, and Berkeley.  Many of the above have one or more of the following rivers flowing through their counties: Waccamaw, Lumber, Rocky River, Little Pee Dee, Lynches, Black Creek, Black River, Great Pee Dee, Catawba, Wateree, and Santee.  Each of these rivers have multiple tributaries and streams associated with the river.

Three interrelated factors make up this analysis and form the basis for this estimate.  First, Social Vulnerability Indexing which generally shows communities that have high portions of the population which do not have the means to recover themselves and are vulnerable to disaster impacts.  Second, counties which have been previously declared by either Severe Storm 2015 or Hurricane Matthew 2016, or both, and are continuing to recover from those previous disasters.  Repeated disaster events have significant and lasting impacts upon populations, communities, and counties.  Finally, the number of major rivers and tributaries, which traverse these counties, which either have, or are predicted to be in Moderate, Major, or Record flood stage.

Given these planning assumptions and above analysis, the best estimate for future CDBG-DR funds is $540 Million Dollars.  Based upon early reporting, we believe the counties in the northeastern corridor will have substantial damage.  This estimate is a snapshot in time and based upon the best available information.  This estimate could increase or decrease.  It is noteworthy that South Carolina has experienced 4 natural disasters within the last 4 years.  Severe Storm in 2015 (Hurricane Joaquin), Hurricane Matthew 2016, mobilization but no Individual Assistance declaration for Hurricane Irma in 2017, and now Hurricane Florence in 2018.  These natural disasters have produced a drastic impact upon numerous communities throughout rural South Carolina.

CDBG-DR grants are the Disaster funding of last resort, and can be used in broad categories for housing, infrastructure, and economic development, which meet the HUD National objectives associated with elimination of blight and slum, urgent need, and benefit for low to moderate income citizens.  Many Low to Moderate income citizens have been impacted by this disaster.  The State of South Carolina, as well as local jurisdictions within the State have received CDBG-DR funding in the past specifying in response to Severe Store (Hurricane Joaquin) 2015 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016.  South Carolina has an exceptional track record with the wise use of these funds.

Regards, 

Jeffrey R. Sanderson

Program Management Director

South Carolina Disaster Recovery Office 

Department of Commerce

The analysis above really drives home the stark reality that not every community is treated or funded equally in the State of South Carolina.  What solution can solve the disparity is beyond the reach of the present blog post.  What is within reach of the present blog post is the transparency provided by the letter from Governor Henry McMaster and the budget analysis letter -- both of which are shown above.  At the same time, the letters provide the reality that there are parts of the State which might not ever recover.  Which means the communities are continuously in a "State of Repair" from one Hurricane to the next -- which is wrong.



Money should be diverted through a block grant and extra funding by FEMA along with more money from Congress.  Now is not the time to perpetuate the persistent state of leaving residents behind.  As has been done in the past and indicated in the letter above.  Americans should be banding together to help the Eastern part of Our Country repair and return to a state of normalcy.  But first, a total assessment needs to be done along with the final passing of Hurricane Florence.  Stay tuned and stay safe.



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How Much Rain Did Huauchinango (Mexico) receive?

How Much Rain Did Elliot City (Maryland) Really Receive?

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How Much Rain Did The East Coast Receive From Hurricane Matthew?

News reports are surfacing everywhere on Twitter (and other social media outlets) discussing the devastation that Hurricane Matthew has brought to the East Coast.  Below is one example from the news site 'NBC News':

The devastation is without question.  What is questionable is the preparation of emergency agencies based on knowledge a few days (weeks) earlier with the disaster that unfolded in Haiti.  Haiti received an enormous amount rain -- which I wrote a blog about last week.  The amount of rain was so large that the summer storm in China which received a whopping 580 billion cubic feet was eclipsed by 750 cubic feet of rain.



Using the same approximations (land area, average rainfall, etc.), lets calculate the amount of rain that the East Coast has received to get a better grasp on the terrible Hurricane Matthew that has ripped apart and drenched parts of the world.

East Coast Receives Rain

As if the devastation to Haiti was not enough to contend with.  But Hurricane Matthew continued to drive up into the United States.  Various news accounts have given numbers which allow us to approximate and estimate through dimensional analysis the terrible amount of rain that have plagued regions.



To accurately assess the total volume of rain that has dropped on the entire East Coast as a result of Hurricane Matthew, each of the weather stations would have to report an average amount of rainfall across their respective region.  Not every region has the capability or funding to do so unfortunately.  Therefore, we have to rely and approximate based on whatever values are reported.  Hopefully, in the future, this disparity will change and weather prediction and storm forecasting will benefit to a large extent from such positive change.   The example I will use below is of the tremendous amount of rainfall that has hit the state of North Carolina in the last few days.



According to the news site 'NBC News' in an article titled "U.S. Death Toll From Hurricane Matthew Rises to 17 Across Four States" reports were given of amounts of rain (listed in inches) fall to various regions:

By Saturday night, rainfall totals were 16 inches in Bladen County, 15 inches in Goldsboro, 12 inches in Lumberton and Smithfield, and 9 inches in Raleigh and Rocky Mount, McCrory said in a statement.

After reading the above statement regarding the amount of rain that fell on various counties in North Carolina, you might not be shocked.  Picture says thousands of words.  Remember that rain was not the only component that made up the devastating impact of Hurricane Matthew.  The other destructive component was the wind factor with speeds reaching into a hundred miles per hour in some places.



Compounding the destruction from rainfall alone, the wind can add to the destruction by imposing a force to be reckoned with.  Below is a video (just over a minute) from 'YouTube' to illustrate my point:

Watching the video above really drives home the destructive power of wind.  Too often, people watching the storm from a television cannot comprehend the effect of wind in a given storm.  Although, after rain has fallen or in combination with, wind can have very devastating and destructive effects on a given geographic area.  Especially, if the area is not built to receive that much rain.  This was the case with a storm in Elliot City (Maryland) earlier this year.



In order to understand the extent of the damage, a few calculations can be performed.  As I mentioned above, we can use the logic and approximations that we have assumed in earlier posts on this site.  First, we can find out the geographic area by looking in the 'Wikipedia' sites for the counties and regions listed in the excerpt above.  Using the same methodology as in previous blog posts of calculating a volume from the product of the area (geographic land mass area) and the height (of rain fall), a total volume will result from our efforts using the expression below:

I will list the area (in square miles) and height (in inches of rainfall).  After performing the conversion of square miles to square feet along with converting inches into feet, a final calculation can be performed. We can plug the values directly into the expression to obtain a volume.



Six regions were listed in the excerpt above: Bladen County (874 square miles), Goldsboro (24.8 square miles), Lumberton (15.7 square miles), Smithfield (11.4 square miles), Raleigh (142.8 square miles), and Rocky Mount (43.8 square miles).  It is important to note that each of these regions have a water component that was not included in the geographical area calculation.  This would increase the area of each region.  Additionally, the water component exacerbates the effects of a Hurricane like Hurricane Matthews.



Again, the outline of the calculations below will be as follows:



1) Line 1: Conversion of units of rainfall - from inches to feet.


2) Line 2: Conversion of units of land area - from square miles to square feet.


3) Line 3: Volume of rainfall - land Area multiplied by Height of rainfall.



With the values and order of calculations/conversions listed above, we can now calculate a volume for each region as shown below:

The volumes listed above are enormous in magnitude which are based on the reporting of the devastating effect of Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina.  As I mentioned above, the state of North Carolina has waterways dispersed throughout the state as illustrated below from 'Wikipedia':

Source: Alexrk2

The East Coast has received an amount of rain that has so far claimed the lives of 18 people (in North Carolina).  Understanding the magnitude of such disasters gives the reader an idea of the force of destruction that such disasters bring with them.  The news cycle is short compared with the long-term recovery process of natural disasters.  The need for accurate reporting and transparency is critical to convey the need for greater infrastructure for future disasters.  Disaster preparation is achieved through transparency and education.



Just in the last six months, the world has seen rainfall that is beyond comprehension in various areas of the US and beyond.  In the paragraphs below, I decided to illustrate the natural disasters in a different light.  The metric I have chosen is appropriate to some degree to illustrate the large volume of rain that has so far fallen on the East Coast.

How Many 'World Largest Pools' Could Be Filled?

The values reported above are enormous.  Well into the billions of cubic feet of rain have dropped onto North Carolina.  If the volume of rain that has dropped onto the six regions is accurately representative of the total rainfall that has dropped onto the entire East Coast, then the total amount is just simply incomprehensible -- to say the least.



When such enormous amounts of volumes are encountered, an appropriate metric is the "World's Largest Pool."  This giant structure has been used frequently on this site -- starting with the first time last year.  Two pictures are shown below for a reference from the website 'Huffington Post':

And ...

Source: Huffington Post

The total volume of this mega structure that has the title of the "World's Largest Pool" is a whopping 60 million gallons.  Yes, you read correctly.  In the image above, a sail boat is shown in the middle.  Alternatively, there are hotel structures in the first image to give a reference to the size of amazing feat.



If we wanted to calculate the amount of rain in each region mentioned above in North Carolina during Hurricane Matthew, we could easily.  First, each volume would have to be converted from cubic feet to gallons.  The conversion would allow us to directly compare each volume as an integer value.  That is the ratio would be expressed as an integer value of the "World's Largest Pool."  From here on out, the "World's Largest Pool" will be abbreviated to "WLP".



Without further ado, lets figure out how many of the WLP could be filled with the respective volumes of rain.  One example calculation will be shown for the region of Bladen County in North Carolina.  All other volumes will be displayed in a table after.

Just when you think that the numbers cannot get any larger, casting the values in different units (in this case US gallons) does just that.  Furthermore, as the result suggests, the amount of rain that fell onto Bladen County is enough water to fill 4,000 of the "World's Largest Swimming Pool".  WOW.



Using the "World's Largest Pool" or WLP as a metric really changes the volume of water.  Before the calculation, all that we were left with from the calculations in the first section were enormous amounts of rainfall expressed in units of cubic feet.  With the calculation above, one can easily view the pictures of the WLP and try to make sense of the number.  Furthermore, if that amount of water fell on any geographical region, there would be damage.



As I promised above, I would provide a table with the equivalent information as calculated above for other recent storms.  Think about the following storms which have been covered on this blog site: China, Elliot City (Maryland, USA), Huauchinango (Mexico), Louisiana (USA), and Haiti.



Here is the table with the values as promised above for comparison:

The importance of showing all of the data on the storms is to illustrate the damage caused by different amounts of rain.  Each storm is different.  Which is why the  continual update of weather models needs to be sought after.  Similarly, more money needs to be devoted toward improving storm calculation programs.  Additionally, more technology (sensors, stations, drones, etc.) need to be deployed to pick up data and feed the data back into the models to improve accuracy.



The tragedy caused by the storms this year so far are enormous and incomprehensible.



How do we move forward as a Nation?  


As a World?  


What about Climate Change?  


Are these linked in some manner?



These questions remain open ended along with others.  Although, as long as we move forward as a world thirsty for knowledge and thoughtful/mindful about the magnitude of such disasters, change can proceed in the correct direction.  Too often each of us proceed throughout our day with large amounts of stress and anxiety.  We do this without considering another force, the force of nature.  The force of nature can compound our stress and anxiety by hundreds of orders of magnitude.  Think of those put out of their homes by the storms recently as you stress at work.  Take a minute to think of those without power or water or a house.  Have a great day!

How Much Rain Did Haiti Really Receive?

Tonight, as I was writing the blog I just finished on autonomous cars, I was scrolling through Twitter to find the original post and ran across the following tweet shown below:

Immediately, I clicked on the article to find out that Haiti received a significant amount of rain from Hurricane Matthew.  How much in comparison to other torrential rain storms this year?  Read onto find out.

How Much Rain Did Haiti Receive?

According to the news site "NBC News" which posted an article titled "Hurricane Matthew: Relief Groups Mobilize for Haiti After 'Catastrophic' Damage" an enormous amount of rain is expected to hit Haiti.  Here is an excerpt describing the magnitude of the storm:

The storm was expected to dump up to 20 inches of rain on parts of southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic. Isolated areas could get up to 40 inches, the hurricane center said.

Instantly, after reading this, I stopped what I was doing and looked for an old post I wrote a few months ago on the massive torrential rain that China received.  Alright, I published the blog post that I was working on first -- in order to focus on the massive amount of rain that is expected to hit Haiti.



In order to compare the amount of rain that is expected to hit Haiti, I needed to calculate a total volume.  I will walk you through the calculations and logic in the following paragraphs.  Some of the values are approximations which I will try to clarify as we go.  If you have any questions regarding approximations or assumptions, just leave a comment.



With this in mind, first, we need to know how large (area in square miles) Haiti is in order to calculate a total volume.  According to the "Wikipedia" page, the total area of Haiti is 10,714-square miles.   The volume of rain was not reported in the news.  Although, a height was reported. According to the excerpt above, between 20 inches of rain in the Southern part of Haiti and 40 inches in other parts -- which could be approximated (grossly) to an average of 30 inches across all of Haiti.



Over the course of the next few days, news reports will refine their values and we can do a follow up comparison.  Specifically, we can then evaluate how far off our approximation was in this post.  For now, lets proceed with the calculation of the total volume of rain.



In order to calculate a volume, three numbers will need to be known.  Or in this case, two numbers will need to be obtained.  All of them have been specified already in this post.  We will need an "area" and a "height" to determine the total volume.  What's missing then?



The values are all reported in different units.  What?  Yes, we have an area of Haiti that is reported as 10,714-square miles.  Further, we have a height of rain that has or is estimated to fall to be 30 inches.  In order to compare and calculate, the units have to be uniform.  In this case, lets choose units of feet.  Our total volume will be reported in cubic feet of rain.



To convert the reported values, we will need the conversion factors from inches to feet and from square miles to square feet.  From the previous blog on rainfall in China, the value is listed below in the conversion shown below:

Next, the equation for the volume is equal to the area (geographic area) multiplied by the height of the rainfall.  The equation for volume is shown below with the above values filled in appropriately:

Wow!  What does the above result mean?

How Does The Value Compare To Other Recent Storms?

As I mentioned earlier, I wrote a blog post on the torrential rain fall in China a few months ago.  Turns out that 12 provinces received around a couple of feet of rain over a geographical area of 10,000 square miles.  Wow!  The total cubic feet of rain was 580 billion cubic feet.



According to our calculations above, the total rain fall expected to hit Haiti as a result of Hurricane Matthews is 750 billion cubic feet of rain.  That is nearly 1.3 times the amount of rain that hit China earlier this year.  These two storms are huge in comparison to the four other storms that I have wrote blogs about: Maryland (USA), Louisiana (USA), Mexico, and Macedonia.



Still, the fact that Haiti is receiving so much rain over its entire land mass is life threatening.  More so than in China, although the populations and land masses are quite different.  Nonetheless, we should be sending humanitarian aid to the victims of these terrible storms.  By calculating the amount of rain fall each storm drops on a given geographic area, the realization of the threat becomes more real.  Dimensional analysis allows us to visualize the magnitude of such disasters by comparing them to our own geographic area.



How does the geographic area of Haiti relate to the geographic area that you live in?



Think about the magnitude of this devastating event.  How would you be impacted by the same volume of rain?  Remember, the magnitudes and values reported/calculated above, neglect the wind speed of 145 miles per hour that blew across the region.  That speed of wind would produce and life threatening force that would level houses and buildings (if not properly built).



Until next time, have a good night.