Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Parameters: GM Lays Off Thousands Of Workers -- Why? People Are Not Buying Cars?


Source: AutoBlog



Last week General Motors (GM) layoffs topped 14,000 people, which will have a negative impact for the surrounding communities along with the nation as a whole.  How did this happen?  Why did this happen?  These are questions which are running through consumer minds in a strong economy.  A brief exploration into the insights of a former Automotive Industry Adviser -- Steve Rattner -- for the Obama administration might shed some light onto the situation.



According to Steve Rattner of MSNBC, the problem is not associated with imports from other countries, but rather around the choices which Americans are making recently compared to other times in history.  For example, in the graph below the trend line for the consumption of American cars is decreasing while the trend line for the consumption of American SUV's is increasing:




Source: MSNBC



Why?  Are more SUV's being purchased?  According to the data in the graph - Yes!  Is that the end of the story?  No.  As pointed out in the video below from which these screenshots are taken from, more people have been moving to urban areas where greater choices are present rather than driving a car: rideshare, public transit, active transportation, etc.  More people are taking part in ridesharing options such as Uber or Lyft.  Additionally, more people are riding public transit -- which is expanding in urban areas too.



The other compelling piece of evidence to support the graph above is the graph below which show the decline of the number of employed autoworkers from the last few years:




Source: MSNBC



Notice at the very end of the line -- indicating the most recent period of time -- a vertical line is drawn on the graph.  From that vertical line to the end of the data the slope is rather 'flat' -- compared to other times in history.  What does that mean?  During the Trump administration, autoworkers have failed (at least cars) to recover and represent a large sector of employment.



Conclusion...



Is this the end of the story?  Not yet.  A certain percentage of the above workers have chances to cross over to work in other plants owned and operated by GM across the country.  Additionally, part of the layoffs are due to the reorganization of the GM corporation to prepare for a new technology revolution to take place with electric vehicles and the associated class of products which will accompany the movement toward a more sustainable world.  What that means for industries like the automotive industry remains to be seen.  Regardless, as the trade disputes get worked out and shifts in export/import rules come to an equilibrium, as a nation, each of us can expect more change on the horizon.



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