Where Is The U.S. At With The Coronavirus? Part 1: Scared?

Photo: The New York Times

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has crippled the United States of America over the last few months.  We have well over 30 million unemployed in the U.S.  What about the spread of the coronavirus?  Each day, there is conflicting news circulating.  Politico offers a nightly update on the coronavirus.



Here is an excerpt from the Newsletter on Wednesday night to think about:

FEAR FACTOR — Today’s signs that Covid is far from being contained in the United States: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt tested positive for Covid; Walmart, the country’s largest retailer, is requiring masks in all its stores; and Maryland's second-largest school district said students won’t return to classrooms until 2021.

Just how scared should we be right now?

The virus isn’t going away — Halfway through July, the situation is actually worse in many parts of the country than at the start of the pandemic. Daily Covid deaths are at their highest levels in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Texas and other states, according to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Last week, Covid Exit Strategy, a group tracking state progress in meeting Covid containment goals added a new shade, “bruised red,” to its color-coded map to signify states where Covid is spreading uncontrollably. Nearly 20 states are now colored deep red.

About 7 to 9 percent of the population, or 23 million people, have been infected to date, estimates Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Minnesota. He said transmission won’t slow until at least half of the population becomes infected. If cases continue growing at today’s pace, even with a lower death rate, he projects that about 800,000 people will die before any sort of herd immunity kicks in. Plus, he added, a shortage of crucial drugs like remdesivir and maxed out hospital capacity could start to reverse progress that clinicians make in treating Covid patients. And young people with common underlying health conditions like obesity aren’t immune from the worst effects of the virus.

“It’s like a big giant forest fire that’s looking for human lives to burn,” he said about the virus. “This is going to last for many months and it is going to get worse.”

We are still unprepared — Unlike other countries now comfortably opening businesses and schools, the U.S. wasted valuable time during its lockdown, said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The positive test rate is in double digits in many states, a sign that the virus is spreading faster than it can be controlled through testing and contact tracing. “What I am continually seeing in these states is that they keep making the same mistake in not being able to do the core elements of public health,” he said. The problem, in his view: Testing supplies are limited, test results are too slow to be useful in guiding behavior, there are still too few contact tracers and many states don’t have a handle on who is actually infected. Until state or federal officials can fix those problems, hotspots will continue to emerge around the country.

There’s some hope — Some states like Maine, Hawaii and Rhode Island have been able to contain the virus and its fallout.

We know what works, Osterholm said. Physical distancing, avoiding crowds and indoor spaces, and wearing masks all decrease risks of transmission to varying degrees. We also know to be less scared of socializing outside and of catching Covid from surfaces like doorknobs and delivery packages. Essential workers and others may not have the luxury of working from home. But keeping hospitals from overflowing can keep mortality rates lower.

“The message here is that none of us should be scared,” Osterholm said. For Father’s Day last month, he met his five grandchildren in person outdoors. He hugged them each for 30 seconds and gave them a kiss. “I felt that was an acceptable risk,” he said.

There are quite a few people in the US who believe that the coronavirus is just another version of the cold flu.  Which to some extent it is.  But don't take that out of context, please.  The coronavirus is deadly, as shown already, and should be taken very seriously.  The above message should serve as a reminder that the United States is not out of the woods at all.  There is no vaccination.



When I hear people around me complain about being quarantined, I think the following thought.  Where are we at as a nation compared to 3 months or 4 months ago?  What have we learned?  There have been scientific advancements in the front of combating the coronavirus. 



Although, the reality is that NO VACCINATION exists yet.  That leads us to the second reality: opening up the economy now is no different than keeping the economy open when the coronavirus hit initially.  Therefore, opening up the country would only expose a large number of innocent people to a deadly virus.



In a previous blog post, the alarming statistic of masks blew my mind.  Namely, that in Hong Kong, there is a 98% mask compliance (a month ago).  The resulting COVID-19 related deaths in Hong Kong (a month ago) -- 4 total.  What?


Masks work.  Simply stated.  Protect yourself and others with the simple method of reducing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.  Just follow this simple rule!



Related Blog Post:


Why Don't People Wear Masks In Public?

Do Masks Protect Against the Coronavirus?