Monday, April 29, 2019

Thoughts: Is China a Threat? Or is the Trump Administration a Threat?


Photo by chuttersnap on Unsplash



Trade talks with China have been consuming the economic discussion along with other trade deals lately.  The economy is booming says, President Trump.  What about trade talks with China and other countries?  Each day, the report seems to be the same old response: "We are almost there...to reaching a record deal" -- or something along those lines.  Except nothing happens.  On the Chinese front, the stagnation is present.  What is happening is that the United States has got a large number of soybeans which they are pushing down China's throat to avoid a catastrophic loss.  Barges and barges full of hundreds of thousands of tons of soybeans.  What about trade overall?



According to an article in "Harpers" magazine titled "What China Threat?", no realistic economist agrees with the Trump Administration:



Just as careful diplomacy is required in military matters, it is also integral to America’s economic relations with China. Virtually no well-­known mainstream economist agrees with Trump, or his top trade adviser Peter Navarro and trade representative Robert Lighthizer, that America’s trade deficits are the result of unfair practices by other countries. Martin Feldstein, the former chairman of Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, has pointed out that America’s global trade deficit is due to the fact that its consumption outweighs its domestic production. Imposing tariffs on low-­cost Chinese goods will not rectify this structural feature, but will serve only to make many essential goods less affordable to ordinary Americans.




The author suggests other writing which would strengthen both China and America at the same time from an economic standpoint:



 Both Feldstein and Magnus agree that in order to maintain supremacy in high-­tech industries like aerospace and robotics, the US government, rather than pursuing tariffs, should invest in areas such as higher education and research and development. In short, America needs to develop its own long-­term economic strategy to match that of China. In both policy and rhetoric, it is clear to see that China’s leadership has a vision for its economy and people. Plans like Made in China 2025 and the infrastructure projects undertaken in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), such as the construction of high-speed railways, demonstrate China’s efforts to become a global competitor in new, advanced industries. At the same time, China’s leaders have emphasized that the country can no longer pursue GDP growth at the expense of social costs such as inequality and environmental pollution. This Xi made clear when he declared in 2017 that the principal contradiction facing Chinese society is now “between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-­growing needs for a better life.” As Magnus sums it up, this means a shift in focus to “improving the environment and pollution, lowering income and regional inequality, and strengthening the social safety net.” Although, as Magnus writes, China’s economy faces several important challenges, China’s leaders have, at the very least, taken steps to address them. It is time for the United States to do the same.


Free trade has benefits to the United States which I have written about previously.  As stated in the article above, the time spent on trade talks would be better spent on investing in education and technologies.  The Trump administration does not believe that education is a high priority.  Quite the opposite.  As far as technology is concerned, the administration is behind large due to its lack of understanding of the importance of investing in research and development.


Of course, the news has highlighted that the Trump administration is against the environmental regulations that the Obama administration instilled to set the United States on pace with the Paris Agreement.  China, as stated above, is even starting to change its habit by investing in renewable energy.  Where are we as a country?  Congress has held, since January, around 8 major subcommittee meetings with the words 'climate change' in the title and in the discussion.  Which is promising to say the least.  Until the government changes the priorities to match where the rest of the world is going, the direction will continue to be toward an 'isolationist' country which is a THREAT to our democracy.



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